Russia’s refusal to extend the agreement caused international outrage – now the grain agreement has expired.

Grain agreement expires

Russia’s refusal to extend the agreement caused international outrage – now the grain agreement has expired. Ukraine announced that it will continue to deliver via the Black Sea, even without security guarantees.

The grain deal was negotiated in Istanbul under the mediation of the United Nations almost a year ago. It ensured the safe shipment of agricultural goods across the Black Sea to ensure global grain supply.

In the morning, the Kremlin rejected an extension of the deal. However, Ukraine plans to continue deliveries even without security guarantees. “Even without Russia, everything must be done to use this Black Sea corridor,” said Selenskyj in a statement on Facebook. Ship owners are willing to call at Ukrainian ports for grain deliveries. The agreement between Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations remains in effect even without Moscow. Only the separate agreement between Russia, Turkey, and the UN has been terminated. Selenskyj did not mention how the ships and their cargo would be insured in the conflict zone.

Erdogan announces talks with Putin

Despite the Kremlin’s statements, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism about an extension. “I believe that my friend Putin wants to continue the agreement despite today’s statement,” Erdogan said.

An extension of the agreement could be possible before the planned visit of the Russian president to Turkey in August, he further added. Negotiations on this matter are already underway.

Russia claims commitments were not fulfilled

In the morning, the Kremlin declared the grain agreement “de facto” terminated. The parts of the agreement concerning Russia have not been fulfilled, said Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov in Moscow. However, he stated that it would be reinstated once the Russian conditions are met. The core issue revolves around Western sanctions, which, from Russia’s perspective, prevent payments for Russian agricultural exports. Moscow had been threatening to let the agreement expire for several weeks.

Thousands of tons of grain from Ukraine

According to the UN, more than 32 million tons of agricultural goods have been exported from Ukraine to 45 countries under the initiative. Over a thousand ships have left Ukrainian ports. In recent months, the exported quantity of agricultural goods has decreased. Ukraine accused Russia of delaying the agreed inspections.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) emphasized that the initiative lowers world market prices for food and contributes to the fight against hunger. With the help of the agreement, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) was able to deliver 725,000 tons of wheat to crisis-stricken countries such as Afghanistan or Somalia. The initiative also had a political dimension: it was considered the only long-term agreement between the warring parties Russia and Ukraine.

Calls for the continuation of the agreement

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock demanded that the grain agreement be immediately reinstated. Addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to New York, she called for not using hunger as a weapon “in the interest of peace in the world.” Baerbock argued for continuing to work on alternative delivery routes, independent of the maritime route, “especially through the European Union,” to ensure that “grain reaches the world.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed a similar sentiment on the sidelines of an EU meeting in Brussels. He stated that Russia’s refusal to extend the grain deal was “a bad message.” “And for a country that has invaded its neighboring country with such aggression, it is also a bad message to the rest of the world,” Scholz added.

UN Chief: “Lifeline for global food security”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep disappointment. The agreement was a “lifeline for global food security and a beacon of hope in a troubled world,” Guterres said in New York. “People may choose to participate in such agreements, but suffering people everywhere and developing countries have no choice.”
Guterres expresses disappointment over the expired grain agreement

Guterres had written a letter to Putin last week with proposals to save the agreement. “I am deeply disappointed that my suggestions were ignored,” he said. Nevertheless, the United Nations will continue to work in this regard, Guterres added. “Our goal must remain to promote food security and global price stability.”

US Secretary of State criticizes Russia’s termination of grain agreement

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to Russia’s termination of the international grain agreement as “callous.” He stated that this would make it harder and more expensive to obtain food in places where it is urgently needed. “This must not happen.” The market is already responding. Russia must reverse its decision.

Shortages expected in Arab countries, Africa, and Asia

The consequences of the collapsed deal are not yet foreseeable, but there are concerns about rising prices and supply shortages.

The German Farmers’ Association does not currently anticipate shortages on the German and European markets following the temporary halt of the agreement for Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea. Deputy Secretary-General Udo Hemmerling told the news agency dpa, “If there is a prolonged interruption in the Black Sea route for grain, oilseeds, and fertilizers, there could be supply shortages and price increases in global agricultural trade.” This would primarily affect importers of bread grains in Arab countries, Africa, and Asia. “In Central Europe, however, there are no expected supply shortages as our own harvest is available.”

Agreement reached in July 2022

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia blocked the sea exports of its neighboring country. In July 2022, Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey agreed on the Black Sea Grain Initiative as parties in Istanbul. The UN mediated the agreement, which was extended multiple times. Another agreement was reached in Istanbul between the United Nations and Russia.

In a Memorandum of Understanding, the UN agreed to work towards unhindered exports of Russian food and fertilizers to global markets. Russia repeatedly complained about the insufficient implementation of the memorandum. The Putin government demanded, for example, that Russia’s Agricultural Bank be reconnected to the international payment system SWIFT.