The recent elections in Ohio, Virginia, and Kentucky have demonstrated the significant influence of the abortion debate on voter preferences and outcomes.

How the Abortion Debate Mobilizes Voters

Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky – Democrats achieved several successes in the elections held in these US states. The intense discussion surrounding the topic of abortion appears to have influenced voters. The party is likely to continue focusing on this issue.

Last year, the US Supreme Court overturned the existing right to abortion and delegated the decision-making power to individual states. Republicans considered this a significant victory at the time. However, the current mood in the country seems to be different, as demonstrated yesterday in Ohio.

In Ohio, 56% of voters supported the inclusion of “reproductive freedom” in the state constitution. This primarily refers to the right to abortion, as well as the choice of contraceptives and artificial insemination. Lauren Blauvelt from Planned Parenthood, an organization that provides family planning services, including abortions, celebrated the decision, stating, “Abortion is part of healthcare. Access to abortion is a legal right in Ohio.”

Many Trump supporters in Ohio

The outcome is surprisingly clear. Ohio is a highly conservative state, and former US President Donald Trump has many supporters there. Governor Mike DeWine, also a Republican, made efforts until the last moment to mobilize his voter base on Fox News. He argued that this was a radical proposal that went too far, regardless of whether someone was for or against abortion.

The Republicans in Ohio sought to ban abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy. However, they failed in this attempt. Abortions will continue to be legal in Ohio until the point at which the embryo can live outside the uterus, approximately until the 22nd to 24th week.

Youngkin, the hopeful, fails

In Virginia, Governor Glen Youngkin, a Republican, wanted to test a compromise: abortions would only be prohibited after the 15th week, a regulation supported by a majority of Americans in surveys. During the campaign, Youngkin argued that voters had the choice between “no limits” and “reasonable limits.” He believed that Virginia could find “reasonableness.”

However, the outcome was different. Yesterday, all 140 seats in the House of Delegates and Senate in Virginia were up for election. The Democrats maintained their majority in the Senate and won the House of Delegates. Virginia remains the only southern state where abortions are legal until the 26th week. Youngkin has lost his status as the Republicans’ hopeful. He had been touted as a secret weapon against Donald Trump and possibly entering the presidential campaign at a later stage. After this recent setback, that is likely no longer the case.

Biden’s weakness remains his age

Even in deeply conservative Kentucky, the Democrats celebrated: their governor, Andy Beshear, was reelected, despite the Republicans fielding a strong opponent. Yet, once again, the issue at stake was abortion. In Kentucky, abortions are generally prohibited, except for a few exceptions. The Democratic governor had vetoed the ban, but his resistance apparently resonated with voters.

The results from Tuesday confirm a trend. Whenever there has been a direct or indirect vote on abortion in states, the opponents have lost—even in conservative states. David Urban, a former campaign adviser to Donald Trump, remarked on CNN that this was a market of ideas: “if your idea isn’t selling, you better come up with a new one.”

For the Democrats, it is clear that they will prioritize the right to abortion in the 2024 election campaign. The question is whether it will be enough to offset the biggest reservation against President Joe Biden: his age. Nearly 80% of voters do not believe he is capable of governing for another four years. In current polls, the 80-year-old Biden is trailing significantly behind the 77-year-old Trump in important swing states.