Sudan with two armies cannot be stable

One month after the start of the conflict in Sudan, it remains difficult for the UN to provide humanitarian assistance to the people affected

A country with two armies cannot be stable

One month after the start of the conflict in Sudan, it remains difficult for the UN to provide humanitarian assistance to the people affected. In an interview, the UN Special Envoy, Volker Perthes, describes the challenges faced by the UN.

How successful were the negotiations for a ceasefire with the warring parties?

Perthes: The warring parties have, so far, only agreed to a declaration of respect for humanitarian principles, mediated by Saudi Arabia and the United States. But they want to continue discussions.

The problem with previous ceasefires was that they were unilaterally declared. Parties said they did so in response to requests from the UN, the African Union, Americans or South Sudan, without agreeing jointly. Therefore, the talks are now crucial to achieving a more comprehensive ceasefire agreement.

Do you see any chance of the conflict ending?

Perthes: There are always possibilities for ending a conflict, and all wars eventually come to an end. We are now in a phase where both warring parties have realized that it is not easy to achieve victory over the other side. Four or three weeks ago, when I spoke with the warring parties, they said victory was a matter of days away. Now, both sides have recognized that it’s not that simple.

Both sides have also realized that even a military victory could result in the loss of their country, or at least a large part of its infrastructure and population. This is why they have engaged in ceasefire negotiations. But even a ceasefire is only one step towards a solution. We need to talk to restore peace and find a sustainable political solution for the country.

Why do you think the conflict has escalated?

Perthes: Shortly before the start of the war, I told the UN Security Council that we had never been as close to a political solution in Sudan, but the situation had never been so tense. This was in large part because the two warring parties, the Sudanese Army and the so-called Rapid Support Forces (RSF), were in intense negotiations about how and when the RSF could be integrated into the army.

We have always said that a country with two, three, or even four, five, or six armies cannot be stable. Ultimately, there must be an army under civilian leadership.

Could the conflict in Sudan become a long-term war?

Perthes: What we have now is a war between two armies, two armed groups. This is not a civil war. The longer this war between the two armies continues, the more dangerous it becomes, as both sides mobilize social, political, ideological, and tribal support.

And there is a real risk of a war with ethnic and ideological dimensions. This must be prevented, and I think this can only be done if the fighting stops quickly.

“Enormous humanitarian impact”

ARD: How severe are the humanitarian consequences of the war?

Perthes: We are already seeing enormous humanitarian impact after one month of the war. There is a significant increase in starvation, displacement, and refugee situations. Even in Port Sudan, where we are temporarily based as the United Nations, we are seeing a significant influx of people from the rest of Sudan because it is relatively stable and secure here.

Tens of thousands have crossed the border into Egypt, and people are fleeing to Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. We estimate that up to 800,000 people are trying to leave the country.

Can humanitarian aid reach the people in Sudan?

ARD: Does humanitarian aid reach the people in Sudan?

Perthes: The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance has increased by several million in these four weeks. At the same time, many of the UN’s supplies have been looted. It is very difficult for us to provide assistance quickly and effectively. Even before the war, the UN World Food Programme and other agencies were helping about seven million people in Sudan regularly with food and financial support.

The number of people who need support has increased from about 14 million to an estimated 18 million. This is a rapid increase at the same time it is difficult to provide this support. It is now being organized from Port Sudan, and the challenge is to get it to the people in the conflict zones. For this, we need a secure ceasefire and safe transport routes so that shipments are not looted again. However, aid is now coming.

“Focus is now on medical care”

ARD: There is criticism that the UN responds too late, and aid reaches the people too slowly. What do you say to this?

Perthes: It is always easy to say that the UN or other aid organizations come too late. But many of the supplies we had in the country, which were available to supply hospitals, for example, have been looted, and UN workers, the World Food Programme and the International Organization for Migration, have been killed, especially in Darfur. Aid shipments have also been looted. This makes it difficult to provide assistance on time and quickly. We are now trying to bring things very quickly and effectively into the country with the support of member states, including the EU, and Germany.

The focus is now on medical care. Hospitals, especially in the conflict zones, are particularly damaged. We estimate that less than 20% of hospitals in Khartoum are fully functional. The need for hospitals naturally increases in a war zone, as so many people have been injured.

Help from Port Sudan

ARD: The fighting in Sudan continues, most foreigners have been evacuated – you are still there.

How is your UN team working under these difficult conditions in Sudan?

Perthes: We have established a small, effective leadership structure for the United Nations here in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Currently, it is not possible to work in Khartoum or Darfur. Port Sudan here in the east of the country is, so to speak, the window to the world. Here, we can coordinate aid effectively, which comes into the country. Parts of the government and important civilian forces are also now in Port Sudan.

As much as possible, we carry on our social and political contacts from here. This is sometimes difficult because we often have no internet and because there are no regular telephone connections. I am personally in constant contact with the warring parties in Khartoum, as well as with civil society and the forces that are trying to help and end the war through their contacts with the warring parties.