Hungary’s Uncertainty Over Sweden’s NATO Membership

Turkey has surprisingly cleared the way for Sweden’s NATO membership. Now, it’s Hungary’s turn. Prime Minister Orbán signals his approval, but concrete steps remain unclear.

Hungary struggles with the next step

Turkey has surprisingly cleared the way for Sweden’s NATO membership. Now, it’s Hungary’s turn. Prime Minister Orbán signals his approval, but concrete steps remain unclear. The government in Budapest was apparently caught off guard by Turkey’s yes to Sweden’s NATO membership. It took until early afternoon for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to gather himself. After a phone call with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Orbán reiterated his support for Swedish NATO membership on the X platform. He will continue to push the parliament to vote on it soon.

Orbán suggests that he is not in control of the process. In practice, however, he governs Hungary single-handedly – and he has repeatedly proven that his promises cannot be trusted. “We will not be the last to ratify. We will ratify before Turkey,” the Hungarian government has repeatedly said.

Promise not kept

But at the moment, it looks like Hungary will indeed be the last country to approve Sweden’s accession to the defense alliance. The opposition sees Hungary embarrassed on the international stage.

“It is immeasurably embarrassing and uncomfortable for Hungary to be in such a situation – that we have treated Sweden in this way, that we have treated Finland in this way before,” says Zsolt Gréczy, parliamentary spokesman for the Democratic Coalition DK. “Hungary’s fundamental national interest is that NATO has more member states – and especially rich ones with a developed military and economic background. But Orbán has represented Putin’s interests.”

What’s the blockade for?

Just on Tuesday, Orbán invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Budapest to negotiate NATO membership. The reaction from Stockholm was reserved. Because it is still completely unclear what Hungary actually wants to achieve with its blockade. Orbán has repeatedly resorted to vague phrases. “Hungary demands respect from Sweden for itself. And only then will the country pass a positive decision,” Orbán said in parliament at the end of September.

On other occasions, Hungarian politicians have demanded the release of frozen EU funds – despite the fact that NATO cannot influence this matter. In the background, Orbán is likely to have coordinated the blockade with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan leaves Orbán in the lurch

However, Orbán has now been left in the lurch by Erdogan, analyzes foreign policy expert and former ambassador István Szent-Iványi. “In my opinion, this shows how much Hungary means to Turkey.” Turkey has used Hungary, he says. “Because for them, it was really great that they were not the only ones applying pressure. They had someone by their side. And then, when they abandoned this position, they did not care about their ally. They embarrassed the Hungarian leadership.”

Whether Hungary insists on negotiations with Sweden or whether Orbán really allows a vote in parliament remains to be seen. The National Assembly is currently in winter recess until the end of February. However, a special session would be possible at any time.