Robert Fico’s recent election win in Slovakia could have consequences for the country’s support towards Ukraine Read more

Did Fico’s Victory in Slovakia Have Consequences for Ukraine’s Support?

Former Prime Minister Fico has won the election in Slovakia – and this could have consequences for Ukraine. The left-wing nationalist intends to terminate military aid to the country. However, it is still unclear if he will find coalition partners.

Cheers erupted from the headquarters of the Smer party in Bratislava, but only in the early hours of the morning. Initial estimates by Slovak television stations during the night had placed the left-wing populists in second place for a long time. However, their victory is now confirmed. According to the official final result, Fico’s party secured a significant lead with 22.9 percent of the votes.

Long-time Prime Minister Robert Fico initially sent his deputy to speak to the media. “It is a great satisfaction for us. We want to express our gratitude! However, we don’t want to jump to conclusions and will wait until the official final result is announced,” said Juraj Blanar.

Simecka: Bad news for democracy

The “Progressive Slovakia” party received 18 percent of the votes. In the previous election, the young party narrowly failed, but now their leader Michal Simecka praises the result as the best for a liberal force in the 30 years of independent Slovakia. “Nevertheless, Smer is the winner. We respect that, but it is bad news for our country, for our democracy, and our reputation abroad. The even worse news would be if Robert Fico now forms a government.”

Simecka, formerly one of the vice-chairs of the European Parliament, intends to hold talks with other pro-European parties. He also has a chance of securing a majority. However, liberal President Zuzana Caputova has already announced that she will first mandate the winner of the elections – which is Fico.

Will Hlas become the kingmaker?

Fico is likely to initially turn to the third-placed party, Hlas, which received 14.7 percent of the votes. Peter Pellegrini’s party split from Fico’s Social Democratic Smer three years ago. For political scientists like Jozef Lenc, Hlas is the potential kingmaker: “When two parties clash, the third one rejoices – and that is Pellegrini. He will align himself with the side that offers him the most promises.”

Pellegrini served as the Prime Minister of Slovakia for two years. He succeeded Fico after his resignation in response to the murder of a journalist in 2018. In this election campaign, Pellegrini appeared much more moderate than his former party colleague. He firmly believes that Slovakia does not need to redefine its foreign policy and that the country will remain firmly anchored in the EU and NATO. “Slovakia has already exhausted any possible military aid for Ukraine – so it is no longer a topic for us. Humanitarian aid is, of course, the right thing to do.”

What role do Christian Democrats play?

Together with the smaller nationalist pro-Russian SNS party, Fico and Pellegrini would have a majority in parliament. The second more radical right-wing party did not surpass the five percent threshold. However, Fico, the pragmatist, could still bring the Christian Democrats on board. Whether a coalition against Fico is even possible depends on the conservatives.