The government in Baku has repeatedly called for direct talks with the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, while simultaneously demanding its dissolution and threatening arrests.

The aim of a peace agreement, expected to be reached later this year, is to bring calm to the people and stability to the region affected by the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Nagorno-Karabakh at its core. Despite being predominantly inhabited by Armenians, the region falls within the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.

However, the situation experienced by Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh is far from peaceful. They fear for their survival as the supply situation has deteriorated since mid-December. Azerbaijan has been increasingly restricting transportation through the only corridor from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, known as the Lachin Corridor.

At the end of April, President Ilham Aliyev established a border control point there, arguing that Azerbaijan has every right to do so. He exploits the opportunity to permanently sever the connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. For months now, the supply of electricity and gas from Armenia has been disrupted.

Only Russian troops and the International Red Cross were allowed to transport essential goods and the sick, but Azerbaijan intermittently interrupts even this, accusing Red Cross vehicles of carrying “non-humanitarian goods” such as mobile phones, cigarettes, and fuel.

Residents have been reporting empty shelves in markets for weeks. Now, due to the lack of gasoline, transportation of bread, fruits, and vegetables between villages and the capital city of Stepanakert has become impossible. Additionally, Azerbaijani forces frequently target farmers attempting to cultivate their fields, according to local inhabitants.

For them, it is evident that President Ilham Aliyev intends to starve and expel them. Their president, Arajik Harutyunyan, fears that the ultimate goal is complete “ethnic cleansing.”

Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh still possess armed forces. Azerbaijan refers to them as “illegally armed groups” and “terrorists,” claiming they receive secret supplies from Armenian forces. However, the Armenian side insists that these are independent self-defense forces for Nagorno-Karabakh.

President Aliyev accuses the Russian “peacekeeping troops,” present as part of a ceasefire agreement in November 2020, of failing to disarm these forces. A six-week war ended with Azerbaijan reclaiming a significant portion of the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenia had occupied since the early 1990s.

Russian troops are supposed to protect the Armenians, but Azerbaijani forces have advanced unhindered on multiple occasions. Moreover, Russia only issues verbal demands to the government in Baku regarding the blockade of the Lachin Corridor.

There are doubts about what the Russian troops could achieve against Azerbaijan’s modernized military, as most Russian forces are tied up in Ukraine. Additionally, Azerbaijan holds greater economic and security strategic importance for Russia than its ally, Armenia.

International attention appears to have prevented Aliyev from attempting to achieve his goals militarily, as he did in 2020. Several countries increased diplomatic pressure after Azerbaijani forces breached the territory of Armenia itself in September last year and occupied areas. The United States engaged in mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the ministerial level.

The EU deployed an observer mission, which, although unarmed and restricted to patrolling within Armenia, would still be able to report significant Azerbaijani troop movements. The EU also acts as a mediator between the two states.

On July 15, Aliyev and the Prime Minister of Armenia met for the sixth time at the invitation of EU Council President Charles Michel. Following the meeting, Michel declared the situation “clearly unsustainable” and called for the opening of the Lachin Corridor.

However, with a carefully worded statement, Michel inadvertently raised significant mistrust on the Armenian side. He stated that he had “taken note” of Azerbaijan’s willingness to deliver humanitarian goods to Nagorno-Karabakh.

For many Armenians, this was seen as a green light for Aliyev to completely close off access to Armenia. The EU subsequently emphasized that supplies through the Azerbaijani side should only serve as a supplement. This example highlights the tense atmosphere among Armenians.

Warning of a New War

Armenia advocates for international mediation between the two sides and internationally guaranteed rights and security for the population. EU Council President Michel also mentioned these guarantees, without specifying who should enforce them.

In the eyes of both conflicting parties, Russia is discredited, even though it continues to act as a mediator alongside the EU and the US. Azerbaijan, now supported by its ally Turkey, demands the withdrawal of Russian “peacekeeping troops” in 2025, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement. However, Russia shows no willingness to allow international engagement in Nagorno-Karabakh.

While negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are ongoing, the situation on the ground deteriorates daily. Prime Minister Pashinyan now speaks of a “ghetto” and a “policy of ethnic cleansing.” Unrest is growing among the people in Armenia. Parallel protests are planned there and in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Prime Minister fears a new war, reflecting a widespread sentiment in the country. Although Armenia is slowly recovering from the heavy defeat in the 2020 war, it is foreseeable that it will not be able to match Azerbaijan, even with anticipated arms purchases, such as from India. However, if there is no solution acceptable to the Armenians, a protracted guerrilla war could ensue that the Armenian leadership would not be able to control.

Massive instability in the region is not in the interest of Azerbaijan either, as it relies on foreign investments. Therefore, international pressure may still have an impact.