Putin and Erdogan Discuss Grain Agreement
In Sotschi, Russia’s President Putin is set to meet with his Turkish counterpart Erdogan today. It is expected that the renewal of the grain agreement will be the focus of the discussions.
Last year, the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, met in person four times within four months. However, they have not met since October of last year. Putin’s last visit to Turkey was four years ago, while Erdogan has visited Russia multiple times since then. Perhaps that’s why Erdogan confidently announced in July that Putin would be visiting Turkey: “President Putin will pay a visit to Turkey next month.”
August came and went, but the Russian guest did not arrive. On one hand, Putin is probably reluctant to fly or leave the Kremlin for obvious reasons. On the other hand, Turkish-Russian relations are currently at their worst level since 2015, when the Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Turkish-Syrian border.
This time, it was verbal attacks from the Turkish side that hit Putin, such as during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Istanbul in early July. Erdogan said, “Undoubtedly, Ukraine deserves to join NATO” at the time. However, the pinnacle of provocation from the Russian perspective may have been when Zelensky left Turkey accompanied by five Ukrainian commanders, who were brought to Turkey as prisoners of war and were supposed to stay there until the end of the war, at least according to the Russian narrative.
On the other hand, Moscow was likely not too concerned when Erdogan dropped his resistance to Sweden’s NATO membership. However, a few days later, Russia withdrew from the grain agreement. In mid-August, the Russian navy opened fire on a Turkish cargo ship in the Black Sea in order to force it to stop.
Erdogan’s Visit to Putin: More Than Just a Grain Agreement
With his trip to Sochi, Erdogan is once again reaching out to Putin, at least physically. This is particularly remarkable because both presidents represent cultures where it is seen as a sign of weakness to make the first move. However, for Erdogan, this visit is about more than just bilateral relations. He was involved in negotiating the grain agreement and gained significant recognition, both internationally and domestically. A renewal of the agreement would be like a second harvest for him. Therefore, the grain agreement is at the top of the agenda in Sochi.
At the end of last week, the foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey, Sergey Lavrov and Hakan Fidan, met in Moscow to prepare for the presidents’ meeting. Turkey is actively seeking to reinstate the grain agreement, said Fidan: “We are currently trying to understand and, if necessary, fulfill the arguments and demands put forward by Russia.” Many obstacles – UN calls for a conclusion
Efforts are being made to ensure that the mistakes and disagreements that occurred during the first phase of the agreement are not repeated. “Our goal is a more sustainable grain agreement.” Russia, for instance, complains that it does not benefit from the grain agreement itself. The agreement should have provided incentives for the export of certain products that are not subject to EU sanctions, such as fertilizers to third countries. It seems that shipowners are facing difficulties in insuring their vessels for such transactions. A new version of the grain agreement could potentially address this issue.
The United Nations had already negotiated the first grain agreement in cooperation with Turkey. UN Secretary-General António Guterres also conveyed a set of proposals to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in the hope of bringing Russia back to the negotiating table. Both sides could benefit
According to Ömer Celik, the spokesperson for the ruling Turkish party AKP, despite everything, the focus should be primarily on Erdogan: “To prevent the world from facing a food crisis, our president has taken the initiative with the utmost diplomatic finesse.”
If they succeed in reactivating the grain agreement, both Putin and Erdogan would benefit. Putin would no longer be criticized for risking a global hunger crisis through the war with Ukraine. Erdogan would gain significance on the world stage, which would help him assert Turkey’s interests with its Western partners. It should make it easier for him to swallow the pride of being the one who travels to Putin instead of the other way around.